Predicting The Super Bowl
With Super Bowl XLVI coming up on Sunday, millions of Americans are making predictions on the outcome. But a RiseSmart analysis shows that one of the most startlingly accurate predictors of Super Bowl success comes from the unlikeliest of sources. According to unemployment data by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics:
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The team whose metropolitan area boasts the lower unemployment
rate during the previous calendar year has won 17 of the past 20 Super
Bowls – a remarkable 85% success rate. Based on this correlation, the
New England Patriots should claim the NFL championship over the New York
Giants. Through November, the 2011 unemployment rate for the Boston
metropolitan area was 6.8%, compared to 8.5% for the New York
metropolitan area.
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RiseSmart says a fan base with lower unemployment is more
likely to attend games, buy team gear, celebrate at sports bars and
cheer their team on to victory. By contrast, a metro area that is
struggling with high unemployment might have a subtle but insidious
effect on its team’s morale.
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The Giants’ upset victory over New England in Super Bowl XLII,
when the Patriots entered the game undefeated, represents one of the
three times in the past two decades when the unemployment rate predictor
failed to predict the outcome of the game.
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Super Bowl XLVI is the third consecutive Super Bowl in which
both teams hail from a metropolitan area with an unemployment rate over
6%. Before 2010, the last time the two Super Bowl teams both came from
cities with jobless rates exceeding 6% was 1994, when Dallas defeated
Buffalo in Super Bowl XXVIII.
